|
It's only fitting that I end the year, decade, and century with a column
that looks to the future. What is in store for Mac users in the future? What
have we got to look forward to? What kinds of stuff will Apple be selling us
in the year 2010?
Here's what I think. (All prices expressed in 1999 dollars.)
Macs will continue to get better, faster, and cheaper. Doh. Macs have been
getting better, faster, and cheaper since the first one rolled off the
assembly line in 1984 and there's absolutely no reason to believe they won't
continue to do so. So I predict that by the year 2010 you'll be able to buy
a 3GHz (3,000MHz) desktop Power Mac with 1GHz system bus, a gigabyte of RAM,
a terabyte of storage, ultra-fast Ethernet and a DVD burner for around
$1,500.
Flat screen monitors will outsell traditional CRT displays for the first
time by 2007. By 2010 you'll be able to pick up a 21" flat-panel display,
with multiple resolutions up to 150 pixels per inch, for less than $1,000.
But the hippest Mac users will be using "wearable" Macs -- little tiny
computers no larger than a portable CD player, hooked up to pair of
stereoscopic lightweight monitors housed in a headset no larger or heavier
than a pair of 1999 reading glasses. This wearable Mac, which I predict will
first be introduced at a price somewhere north of $10,000 around 2007, will
be mouseless -- controlled by voice only. With its built-in GPS tracking
system, wireless data and voice capabilities, and ability to play
high-definition ultra DVD movies, the wearable Mac is designed to be the
only electronic device you need. Alas, even a low-end wearable Mac will set
you back $5,000 or more in 2010.
Speaking of wireless, I predict Apple will merge with a large wireless
service provider (PrimeCo, Sprint, GTE Wireless, etc.) by 2005 and begin to
offer high bit-rate wireless voice and data services anywhere. All Macs will
come with built-in wireless capabilities so they can send and receive date
at more than 100 megabits per second from anywhere in the 54 United States.
The cost for unlimited use of this service will be less than $10 a month.
and Apple will make most of their money the old-fashioned way -- by selling
ads.
So that's what I think the technical landscape will look like in ten years.
But what of the business side? What will happen to Apple stock? Will Apple
be an acquirer or acquiree? Here's what I forsee:
By the year 2010 Apple stock will be selling for the equivalent of $11,000
dollars a share accounting for the 13 stock splits during the decade. Their
cash on hand will swell to more than a trillion dollars, and they'll embark
on one of the most massive acquisition binges the business world has ever
seen. In addition to snagging the aforementioned wireless carrier, I think
it more than likely that Apple will buy a movie studio, a television
network, IBM or Motorola, and at least one major Internet portal.
OK, that last part is mostly wishful thinking. But hey, if Apple stock
continues to appreciate as fast as it has over the past two years, some of
those things may not be so farfetched.
On the other hand, I think, if anything, the hardware we use in the year
2010 may be even better, faster, and cheaper than anything I describe.
We'll see.
Have a happy new year!
Back
to Dr. Mac's Most Recent Articles
Bob
LeVitus is a leading authority on the Mac OS and the author of 34
books, including Mac OS 9 For Dummies. E-mail comments
to boblevitus@boblevitus.com.
|